Data analysis picks Yamal as favorite for 2026 Ballon d'Or over Kane and Mbappe
Data analysis firm Avisia predicts Yamal is the favourite to win the 2026 Ballon d'Or award.
The race for football's most prestigious individual award tightens with the ceremony hours away in London. Data analysis firm Avisia calculated Yamal's chances at 23 percent.
Kane comes second at 21 percent and Mbappe third at 19 percent. Rodri, defending winner, is tied with Mbappe at 19 percent.
Bookmakers see it differently. They place Kane as the outright favourite at about 70 percent.
Yamal won the World Cup and La Liga with Barcelona. Injury limited his personal statistics.
Kane scored an extraordinary 73 goals this season. That is the most by any player since Messi's 82 in 2011-12.
Kane won the Bundesliga with Bayern. Mbappe leads La Liga scoring with 25 goals and the Champions League with 15.
He also holds the World Cup goal record at 12. However, Mbappe failed to win a major trophy with club or country.
Analysts say this weakens his case.
- 23 percent
- Yamal's probability per Avisia
- About 70 percent
- Kane's bookmaker odds
- 73 goals, most since Messi's 82 in 2011-12
- Kane's goal tally this season
- 12, a record
- Mbappe's World Cup goals
Why it mattersRecent winners almost always captured a major title in their honour year, meaning Yamal's World Cup win gives him an edge despite Kane's record goal tally.
AustraliaNo direct Australian effect, though Australian football fans watch the award as the sport's global benchmark for individual excellence.
✓ Claims checked against the source. checked 3 h ago
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