Qualifying finals emerge as AFL's toughest contest, not grand finals
Analysis of 5,111 AFL games from 2000 to 2025 shows qualifying finals are the most physically contested, not grand finals.
Researchers analysed every AFL game between 2000 and 2025 to check whether grand finals are really the year's toughest contest. Teams average slightly fewer disposals in finals than regular games (347.5 versus 361.5), and contested possession rates climb from 38.6% to 41.1%.
Since 2012, qualifying finals have averaged the most tackles (138.6 compared to 135.5 in grand finals). Grand finals rank around fifth in tackles among the nine finals played each September.
In the past 14 seasons, the grand final has never been the final with the most contested possessions. The cliché used to hold true from 2009 to 2012, when grand finals were the most physically demanding.
Saturday's decider between Fremantle and Brisbane will be watched with this data in mind.
- 5,111
- Games analyzed
- 138.6
- Qualifying final tackles
- 135.5
- Grand final tackles
- 2009 to 2012
- Years when grand finals were toughest
Why it mattersTeams may be preparing for the wrong game. If grand finals aren't actually the toughest contest, their strategy might need adjusting.
AustraliaAFL fans' understanding of grand final intensity is challenged by data, affecting how commentators and teams approach the biggest match.
✓ Claims checked against the source. checked 35 min ago
