New research doubles sea-level threat from Doomsday Glacier
Scientists now estimate Thwaites could raise sea levels 1.2 inches by 2100. This is double their previous forecasts.
West Antarctica's Thwaites Glacier has a grim nickname: the Doomsday Glacier. That's because its collapse would cause catastrophe.
Now it's melting much faster than climate models predicted. A new study by glaciologists from UC Irvine and NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory found the cause.
Relatively warm ocean water seeps deep under the ice. This happens through a process called tidal pumping at the glacier's grounding zone.
The grounding zone is actually miles wide, not a fixed line. Seawater flushes in and out with the tides.
This speeds up the melt. When researchers adjusted their models to account for this, they found Thwaites alone could raise sea levels up to 1.2 inches by 2100.
That's twice their previous estimates. The glacier also acts as a cork holding back the vast Antarctic ice sheet.
If it collapses, the total rise could reach around 10 feet, devastating coastal cities from Miami to Manila.
- Around 4% globally
- Current contribution to sea level rise
- 1.2 inches
- Sea level rise by 2100 (Thwaites alone)
- Around 10 feet
- Potential total rise if Thwaites
- Mattia Poinelli, UCLA
- Lead researcher
Why it mattersA 1.2-inch rise may sound small. But it amplifies coastal flooding risks dramatically for hundreds of millions of people.
AustraliaAustralia's major cities, Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, sit on low-lying coasts. Doubled sea-level threat means higher storm surge, more frequent flooding, and greater risk to homes, infrastructure, and agriculture in coastal zones.
✓ Claims checked against the source and corrected before publish. checked 2 h ago
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