Labor projected to win House majority on just 27% of primary vote in latest poll
A new DemosAU poll projects Labor would win 84 House seats on just 27% primary vote.
A new federal polling model from DemosAU, conducted from August through mid-September with 9,740 respondents, shows Labor would win government if an election were held now. The poll projects Labor 84 seats (well above the 76 needed for a majority), the Coalition 34 seats (up 21), One Nation 24 seats (down 36), Greens zero and all others eight.
Labor's primary vote sits at 27%, One Nation's at 26% and the Coalition's at 22%. The projection reflects Labor's strong preference flows, particularly from Coalition voters who favour Labor over One Nation.
The wide seat range for Labor (72-85) suggests some uncertainty in the outcome.
- 27%
- Labor primary vote
- 84 of 150
- Labor projected seats
- 60 to 24 seats
- One Nation drop
- 9,740 respondents
- Survey sample
Why it mattersThe poll shows a dramatic shift since earlier in the year, with One Nation's seats halving and Labor's position strengthening despite a fractured primary vote.
AustraliaAustralians voting federally would face a Labor government under current polling trends, with One Nation's influence sharply curtailed and the Coalition in third place.
✓ Claims checked against the source and corrected before publish. checked 3 h ago
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