One Nation surges as the Nationals face existential threat at polls
The Nationals face their worst challenge yet as One Nation gains ground in rural Australia.
Australia's Nationals party faces an unprecedented threat to its survival. One Nation is gaining ground in their traditional rural seats.
Matt Canavan's move from the Senate to contest the lower house seat of Capricornia shows how serious the shift is. The party faces heavy losses in NSW state elections this March.
Talk focuses on a near total loss of their 11 lower house seats. Their Victorian prospects look stronger.
One Nation's national surge has attracted new members and volunteers. The party lost Barnaby Joyce to One Nation.
His switch to the rival party gave them credibility and regional voter momentum. Election analyst Antony Green notes the Nationals hold nearly 36 percent of Coalition seats federally.
This is their highest share since World War II. But state-level primary votes in NSW have fallen sharply.
The Nationals' strength will be tested before the 2028 federal election.
- 11
- NSW lower house seats at risk
- Nearly 36 percent
- Coalition seat share
- March
- NSW state election
- 9
- Victorian lower house seats
Why it mattersThe Nationals' decline reshapes Australian politics. A smaller minor party means less regional voice in parliament and could create coalition instability.
AustraliaThe outcome of Victorian and NSW state elections this year will determine how many Nationals seats survive to shape federal politics in 2028.
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