New Zealand polls clash on Saturday election outcome
Verian poll shows right-wing parties leading by 9.1 points; Reid Research gives left a 2.2-point edge.
Two major polls released last week paint wildly different pictures of New Zealand's election on Saturday. The Verian poll for 1News shows the right-wing bloc (National, ACT, NZ First) well ahead of the left (Labour, Greens, Te Pāti Māori) by 9.1 points, enough to win even if centrist Opportunity joins the left.
The Reid Research poll for RNZ, however, shows the left with a 2.2-point lead. The Verian and Reid Research polls each surveyed 1,000 people in nearly identical weeks.
The Verian trend is sharply rightward: the right's lead grew from 2.8 points in late September to 9.1 last week. Reid's left-leaning result is an outlier, only two Reid polls since June have shown the left ahead.
Opportunity sits at 6-7%, and could hold the balance of power.
- 9.1 points
- Verian right lead
- 2.2 points
- Reid left lead
- From 2.8 points in late September
- Right-wing surge
- 6.3-7.3%
- Opportunity support range
Why it mattersDifferent polling outcomes suggest vastly different coalition options, making the election outcome genuinely uncertain until Saturday's vote.
AustraliaNo direct impact on Australia, though a leftward shift in New Zealand could affect trans-Tasman trade and regional policy.
✓ Claims checked against the source. checked 2 h ago
