1960 doomsday prediction said today the world ends. It was wrong.
Three scientists predicted infinite population today, but fertility fell instead.
In 1960, three scientists published a formula in Science showing world population would grow exponentially and hit infinity today, Friday November 13, 2026. This didn't happen.
Population growth actually peaked at about 2.3 per cent in 1963, just years after the paper, then slowed dramatically. The formula worked until the 1980s but missed something crucial: it treated population like a law of physics when it actually depends on social choices.
Fertility rates shifted unexpectedly, including the post-war baby boom. University of Melbourne demographer Peter McDonald said fertility cannot be predicted accurately beyond about 10 years.
Social forces that don't exist yet shape it. Meanwhile, many countries now worry about falling birth rates instead of overpopulation.
- 1960 in journal Science
- Paper published
- November 13 2026
- Predicted doomsday
- 2.3 per cent in 1963
- Actual growth peak
- worked well until the 1980s
- Formula accuracy period
Why it mattersThe failed prediction shows why forecasts of social change are fragile. It demonstrates why big doomsday claims about population deserve scepticism.
AustraliaAustralia's fertility rate is lower now, but immigration keeps population stable. Billionaire Elon Musk recently called Australia's rate a catastrophe, but demographers say that misses the role migration plays.
