El Niño sea levels surge 40cm as Kelvin waves push warm water across Pacific
El Niño's warm water has lifted Pacific sea levels 40 centimetres. Kelvin waves and a lunar cycle peak will amplify holiday-week coastal flooding.
Hot water from this year's El Niño has already raised sea levels by up to 40 centimetres in parts of the eastern Pacific. NASA satellite data shows Kelvin waves.
These are slow, powerful swells of warm water thousands of miles long. They push the extra height eastward toward the Americas' Pacific coasts.
A new study predicts extreme sea-level events at rare levels for some sites during the 2026-27 season. The worst timing: peak tides hit Thanksgiving week and Christmas week.
Beaches and ports see the heaviest traffic then. Researchers warn these higher seas, combined with an unusual 18.6-year lunar cycle and a stronger-than-average El Niño, could produce flooding normally not expected for 40 to 50 years.
California has already seen some major flooding. Researchers have built an online map for people to check their local flood risk.
- 40 centimetres (1.3 feet)
- Sea level rise
- eastern Pacific from Alaska to Chile
- Affected region
- 2026-27 El Niño season
- Study period
- 18.6-year nodal cycle at peak
- Lunar cycle
Why it mattersCoastal communities face rare extreme flooding during the busiest holiday travel weeks. This could cause major damage and disruption.
AustraliaAustralia's Pacific coast, though outside the study's focus zone, could see elevated sea levels and increased storm surge risk from the same El Niño dynamics.
✓ Claims checked against the source. checked 2 h ago
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