Extreme El Niños will become more common unless we reach net zero soon
Research shows extreme El Niño events will occur more often as the planet warms, but faster emissions cuts can reduce their frequency.
A historic El Niño is forming in the Pacific and could be among the strongest ever recorded. For Australia, this means heightened risk of hot, dry conditions and an intense bushfire season.
The bigger concern is what comes next. Research using climate models shows extreme El Niño years will become far more common if the world keeps burning fossil fuels.
As the Pacific warms, the temperature difference between its warm western side and cooler eastern side shrinks. When that gap narrows, it takes less warming to trigger an El Niño.
However, the timeline matters. If the world reaches net zero carbon emissions sooner, it would limit how often these extremes occur.
Ocean warming continues long after emissions stop. The research examined past El Niños: in 1982, Peruvian rivers swelled 1,000 times their normal flow; in 2016, more than two-thirds of Australia's Great Barrier Reef was damaged.
- 1,000 times normal flow
- Peru river surge in 1982
- More than two-thirds
- Great Barrier Reef bleached in 2016
- Expected into 2027
- Current El Niño duration
- 75 lives
- Ash Wednesday fires death toll
Why it mattersEl Niño shapes global rainfall and temperature. More frequent extremes mean more droughts, floods, fires, and disease outbreaks affecting food and water security.
Open this story in InSnip →
