Australian politics
Australian politics shows who governs in Canberra and in every state, every federal poll since the 2025 election, how the polls did against the results at past elections, and how the 2025 votes became seats.
What it works out
- Who governs each state and territory, the federal seats in each, and the swing between 2022 and 2025, on a map.
- Every published federal poll since the 2025 election, the trend for each party, and who leads.
- Each pollster's final poll against the result at every federal election since 2007 and every state election since 2010.
- How preferences turned first preferences into the two-party result, the seats that changed hands in 2025, and each party's share of the vote against its share of the seats.
- The seats in both houses, the leaders, where the parties stand on the big issues, the budget and the elections coming up.
Where the numbers come from
- Wikipedia's opinion polling pages, compiled from the pollsters' own releases
- Australian Electoral Commission, federal election results and preference flows
- State and territory electoral commissions, for state results
- Parliament of Australia, for members and senators
Questions people ask
How accurate are the polls?
The page measures it: each pollster's final poll at every federal election since 2007 against the result. On average the final polls have been out by about a point on the two-party vote, and in 2019 they had the wrong side ahead.
Where do the polls come from?
From the pollsters' own published results, as compiled on Wikipedia's opinion polling pages, read every six hours. The trend line is a weighted average of the polls around each week, so one poll cannot swing it.
Why did Labor win so many seats on 34.6 per cent?
Preferences and single-member seats. Most Greens voters' preferences flowed to Labor, which took it to 55.2 per cent two-party, and winning many seats narrowly turns a vote share into a larger seat share.
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