Matt Canavan switches to lower house, challenging One Nation in vulnerable seat
Nationals leader Matt Canavan is contesting Capricornia in the lower house. One Nation support now rivals Coalition strength there.
Nationals leader Matt Canavan is switching from the Senate to contest Capricornia in the lower house. Canavan lives in the seat, but it faces a serious One Nation threat.
One Nation polled 15.5 percent in Capricornia at the 2025 election, more than double its 6.4 percent national result. One Nation is now roughly four times stronger nationwide.
The party is expected to exceed 30 percent in this seat. Canavan backs coal mining interests.
He is counting on his local standing to keep Nationals support strong enough to survive. The threat extends beyond Capricornia.
Most of the Nationals' lower house members face similar One Nation challenges across Queensland.
- 15.5 percent
- One Nation Capricornia vote 2025
- 6.4 percent
- One Nation national vote 2025
- 2013
- Seat held since
- Collinsville, Moranbah, Clermont
- Major mining centres
Why it mattersIf Canavan loses, it puts him at the front of the queue of potential casualties. This signals broader trouble for the Coalition in Queensland regional seats where One Nation is surging.
AustraliaThis contest will test whether traditional Coalition supporters in Queensland mining regions stick with the Nationals as One Nation's vote grows.
✓ Claims checked against the source and corrected before publish. checked 4 h ago
