El Niño conditions forecast sharp drop in tropical storms
Australia's 2026-27 cyclone season could see only five to eight named storms, well below the average of 11.
Australia's 2026-27 cyclone season could be one of the quietest on record. European forecasting models show a likely range of five to eight named storms compared with a long-term average of 11.
El Niño is the cause. It produces cooler waters off Australia's northern coast, weaker monsoons and less moisture in the atmosphere.
This suppresses cyclone formation. The forecast is based on 51 model runs and shows the average result plus or minus at least one standard deviation.
Fewer cyclones does not mean zero risk. Since 1970, about three to four tropical cyclones per year cross the Australian coast at full strength.
Communities should still prepare. On average, the first system to cross the coast does not do so until late December.
- 5 to 8 named storms
- Forecast range 2026-27
- 11 named storms
- Long-term average
- 51
- Model runs performed
- November 1 to April 30
- Season dates
Why it mattersFewer cyclones means lower risk of devastating storm surge, flooding and wind damage across Australia's tropical regions, a genuine break for communities that face this threat annually.
AustraliaAustralians in cyclone-prone areas of Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory face significantly reduced risk of major storms this season, though preparation is still essential.
✓ Claims checked against the source and corrected before publish. checked 3 h ago
