Fremantle's minor premiership offers no guarantee against Hawthorn's upset bid
Since 2016, the pre-finals bye has narrowed the gap between top and fourth-placed teams, leading to multiple upsets in qualifying finals.
Before the pre-finals bye arrived in 2016, minor premiers beat fourth-placed teams by an average of 45 points in a nine-year stretch of qualifying finals. The 2016 change altered everything.
Collingwood beat Geelong, nearly beat Geelong again in 2022, and last year Collingwood upset Adelaide. GWS beat Sydney.
The fourth-placed Giants lost to Sydney despite being five goals ahead. Top sides are studied, copied and plotted against all year.
Finishing first by 12 points does not guarantee a 12-point edge on finals night.
Why it mattersAs Fremantle host Hawthorn tonight as minor premiers, history shows being on top is no protection in a qualifying final.
AustraliaAustralian AFL fans know that the team finishing first has a real chance of going out in the first finals round.
✓ Claims checked against the source and corrected before publish. checked 45 d ago
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