Home buyers have until after Christmas to time the market bottom, economist
HIA chief economist Tim Reardon says first-home buyers have a narrow window closing after Christmas 2026 to enter the market.
Australian property prices have fallen 6.7 per cent since March. The Commonwealth Bank expects a further drop to 14 per cent overall.
Tim Reardon is chief economist for the Housing Industry Association. Tim Reardon told 7NEWS the buying window for first-time buyers is now opening but will close shortly after Christmas.
Tim Reardon expects the market to rebound quickly due to housing shortages and low unemployment. He predicts one more interest rate hike next year.
Perth and Brisbane are likely to bounce back fastest. Sydney will take longer due to its interest-rate sensitivity.
Reardon expects housing construction to slow in 2027 before recovering in 2028 as the effects of government tax changes on negative gearing and capital gains unfold.
- 6.7 per cent since March
- Price fall to date
- 14 per cent
- Forecast total fall
- Shortly after Christmas 2026
- Buying window closes
- 4.85 per cent, highest in 18 years
- Official cash rate
Why it mattersBuyers who move soon may avoid further price falls before the market recovers, but timing is tight.
AustraliaFirst-home buyers and investors considering their options have a shrinking window to enter the Australian property market at lower prices before a rebound, with decisions needed within the next six weeks.
