Labor's western Melbourne suburbs crumbling as voters turn to One Nation
In Labor's traditional stronghold west of Melbourne, cost of living, unfulfilled promises and crime are driving voters toward One Nation.
Melbourne's working-class western suburbs have been Labor heartland for decades, but the party faces its biggest threat there in a generation. In Sydenham, Labor's primary vote plunged 17.8% in 2022; two-party-preferred dropped below 60% for the first time in three decades.
Similar swings hit St Albans (18.4%), Greenvale (15%) and Yan Yean (11.3%). Locals cite soaring costs, crime and drug use as top concerns.
Many are mortgage-stressed from rising interest rates. A 2018 promise to build a Melton hospital and electrify the Sunbury line remains unfulfilled.
One Nation, once seen as fringe, is now attracting these voters as a change option. Even the party's own strategist says Labor ignored the warning signs and banked on voters never moving anywhere else.
- Down 17.8%
- Sydenham primary vote swing
- Below 60% (first time in 30 years)
- Sydenham two-party-preferred
- 18.4%
- St Albans primary vote swing
- 15%
- Greenvale swing
Why it mattersIf Labor loses these once-safe seats, the Victorian election result swings dramatically; One Nation gains real parliamentary power.
AustraliaVictorian voters face a possible shift in state government balance; cost-of-living voters moving to One Nation could reshape state policy on tax, infrastructure and services.
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