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✓ ABC NewsPower & Policy

Expat votes could swing New Zealand's knife-edge election

About 126,000 New Zealanders overseas are registered to vote in the November 7 election, with nearly two-thirds living in Australia.

New Zealand's election is on a knife edge, and expats living abroad could tip the balance. About 126,000 Kiwis overseas have registered to vote, more than 33,000 above the 2023 election.

Nearly two-thirds live in Australia. That's more than 3 per cent of all registered voters.

At the 2023 election, more than 77,000 of up to 1 million Kiwis living abroad voted. Experts say a swing of just 1 or 2 per cent could decide the outcome.

One academic noted expats tend to vote for minor parties and lean left, with the Green and Te Pāti Māori parties receiving strong support from overseas voters at the 2023 election.

126,000
Overseas registered voters
More than 3 per cent
Percentage of all registered voters
Nearly two-thirds
In Australia
1 to 2 per cent
Swing that could decide it

Why it mattersOverseas voters could become kingmakers in a tight race, shifting New Zealand's government depending on turnout and party strategy.

AustraliaMany Australian-based Kiwis care deeply about wages, housing and cost of living, issues affecting both countries, so their votes reflect concerns shared by Australian neighbours.

✓ Claims checked against the source and corrected before publish. checked 2 h ago

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