House prices face record 14% downturn from peak, CommBank warns
Commonwealth Bank predicts a record 14% national price fall and 15% drop in five capitals as the downturn accelerates.
House prices are forecast to fall 14 per cent from their March peak, the worst downturn in the history of Australia's national monthly price series, according to Commonwealth Bank economists. The five capital city average is expected to drop around 15 per cent.
CommBank revised its forecasts down sharply from September, when it predicted a 9 per cent fall. National prices have already fallen 6.7 per cent since the March peak, with seven consecutive monthly declines.
Sydney has fallen 10 per cent from its February high, while Brisbane is down 8.3 per cent and Perth down 8.9 per cent. The cash rate now at 4.85 per cent is adding pressure; CommBank earlier expected it to peak at 4.60 per cent.
Auction clearance rates across the five capitals have dropped below 50 per cent and homes are taking longer to sell.
- 14% from peak to trough
- Predicted national fall
- 6.7%
- Already fallen since March peak
- 7
- Consecutive monthly declines
- Around 18% from peak to trough
- Brisbane and Perth expected fall
Why it mattersHomeowners face larger losses than previously thought, and buyers waiting for price stability will need to wait longer as the downturn deepens.
AustraliaAustralian homeowners in all capitals will see their property values decline further. Renters may benefit from increased rental yields as owners face pressure. Construction activity could slow if prices fall harder than expected.
