Why response rates crashed and pollsters keep missing Trump
Polls underestimated Trump in three straight elections; falling response rates mean pollsters may miss again in 2026.
Pollster response rates have crashed. In 1997, 36% of people answered calls.
By 2018, only 6% did. Who answers matters.
Better-educated voters respond more often, and they lean Democratic, skewing polls toward Democratic predictions. Pollsters now adjust for education, but the gap between who answers and who doesn't remains hard to measure.
The 1948 Dewey-Truman race showed the danger: every major poll predicted Dewey would win easily. Trump has beaten the polls in all three presidential races, though the gap shrank in 2020.
The 2026 midterms offer a clear test. If Republicans outrun predictions without Trump on the ballot, it proves nonresponse bias exists.
- 36 percent
- Response rate 1997
- 6 percent
- Response rate 2018
- 303
- Truman electoral votes
- 189
- Dewey electoral votes
Why it mattersIf polls are systematically missing Republican votes, companies, investors, and political campaigns relying on forecasts to plan could face costly surprises.
AustraliaNo direct Australian effect yet, but US political shifts affect global markets, trade, and alliances important to Australia.
✓ Claims checked against the source and corrected before publish. checked 4 h ago
