America's weak Asia position leaves Australia without reliable security shield
Sam Roggeveen argues America's weakening position in Asia means it won't reliably defend Australia.
Sam Roggeveen is director of the Lowy Institute's International Security Program. Roggeveen gave the 2026 Boyer Lecture on Australia's future in Asia.
Roggeveen identified four forces reshaping the region: Western power declining, China rising, a powerful Asian neighbour emerging, and changes in Western democracy. China's economy now rivals America's.
China is building the world's largest navy. China is quadrupling its nuclear arsenal.
Roggeveen says America is geographically and militarily safe. So America has no vital reason to defend Australia against China.
Yet Australia's defence strategy depends on the US defending it.
- at least four-fifths of America's
- China's economic size
- world's largest
- Navy expansion
- quadrupling
- Nuclear arsenal
Why it mattersAustralia's defence and foreign policy depend on US commitment. But Roggeveen argues that commitment is no longer reliable.
AustraliaAustralia's entire security strategy is built on US defence against China, but that assumption may no longer hold.
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