Democrats given 82% chance to win Senate in midterm election
Analyst Nate Silver predicts Democrats will likely control the Senate after Tuesday's US midterm election.
Democrats have a strong chance of controlling Congress in Tuesday's midterm elections. Analyst Nate Silver gives Democrats an 82% chance of winning the Senate.
Silver gives them a 96% chance of winning the House. Voters favor Democrats by 9.4 points on a generic ballot.
This measures party support. President Trump's net approval is minus 20.4.
This means 58.8% disapprove while 38.4% approve. A drop in gas prices since late September could help Republicans slightly.
But the stock market decline in recent trading may offset any gains. The Senate outcome remains uncertain.
Results could range from a narrow Republican majority to a large Democratic win.
- 82 per cent
- Senate control chance
- 96 per cent
- House control chance
- 9.4 points
- Generic ballot lead
- -20.4
- Trump net approval
Why it mattersThe Senate determines major legislation and judicial appointments. If Democrats gain control, it would reshape policy on the economy and inflation.
AustraliaNo direct Australian effect yet, but if Democrats win, US trade policy and economic direction could shift, affecting Australian exporters and the global economy Australia depends on.
✓ Claims checked against the source. checked 3 h ago
