One Nation surge could cost Labor seats in Illawarra stronghold, Minns warns
Premier Chris Minns says One Nation's vote is surging and Labor could lose its Illawarra stronghold in the 2027 NSW election.
Premier Chris Minns has warned that One Nation's rising support threatens Labor's Illawarra seats. MP Paul Scully said One Nation could come second in the region's primary vote and win a couple of seats.
Chris Minns and Paul Scully said the political reality now is that if Labor loses government in March 2027, One Nation will form the next government. Scully told voters One Nation candidates must outline specific plans for the Illawarra.
They must do more than blanket state-level policies. Minns said he was worried about losing every seat.
He was cautious about going into the election overconfident. Political analyst Antony Green expects One Nation's vote share to be three or four times higher than the 6-7 per cent they scored in the Illawarra upper house in 2023.
This would put them at 18-27 per cent.
- March 2027
- Election date
- 6-7 percent Illawarra upper house
- One Nation 2023 result
- 18-27 percent
- Projected One Nation vote
- Antony Green
- Analyst
Why it mattersNSW voters in the Illawarra will decide between Labor, One Nation, and the Coalition in four months, and the outcome will shape who governs the state.
AustraliaIllawarra residents face a genuine shift in their political options; the region's long Labor dominance is no longer assured as One Nation builds support among voters frustrated with cost-of-living pressures.
✓ Claims checked against the source and corrected before publish. checked 1 h ago
