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Christopher Luxon. A bald middle-aged man in a navy suit with a silver fern lapel pin and patterned tie smiles at the camera against a wood-panelled background.
✓ ConversationPower & Policy

Luxon may need Opportunity Party despite ruling them out of coalition

PM Luxon ruled out the Opportunity Party as coalition partners, but polls suggest he may need their support to govern.

New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has repeatedly rejected forming a government with the Opportunity Party, citing their land tax plan. But the arithmetic may not favour him: opinion polls suggest he cannot form a coalition without their numbers.

Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong says she is open to talks with National after the election but would not support the current government's coalition agreement. Opportunity's published priorities, ending bottom-trawling, strengthening climate action, capping political donations, align more closely with Labour.

Luxon could theoretically offer Opportunity a confidence-and-supply agreement from the cross benches instead of a formal coalition, giving him government without admitting he needed them.

Christopher Luxon, National Party
PM
Opportunity Party, leader Qiulae Wong
Opposition party
5%
Threshold for parliament

Why it mattersCoalition mathematics may force Luxon to reverse his position, undermining his campaign credibility and reshaping New Zealand's government formation.

AustraliaNo direct Australian effect yet, though NZ government changes occasionally influence regional trade and policy.

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