Iron ore and LNG to bear the brunt as Australia's mining boom ends
Mining exports will fall from $422 billion to $343 billion by 2031 as China weakens and Africa rises.
Australia's most valuable export sector is heading for a sharp decline. Mining and energy export earnings will fall from $422 billion this financial year to $343 billion by 2030 in real terms.
Iron ore, the nation's biggest export earner, is expected to fall from $119 billion to $87 billion. China's demand is weakening and African supply is growing.
Liquefied natural gas will shrink from $70 billion to $42 billion as Middle East supply normalises and US output expands. The forecasts are from the Department of Industry, Science and Resources.
Current prices are temporarily boosted by recent heatwaves in India, Bangladesh, Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines, and by war in the Middle East.
- $422 billion to $343 billion by FY2031
- Total export decline
- $119 billion to $87 billion
- Iron ore decline
- $70 billion to $42 billion
- LNG decline
- 75 per cent of global seaborne supply
- China's iron ore imports
Why it mattersMining and energy is Australia's largest export sector and a major source of government revenue and jobs. A $79 billion decline will significantly affect federal and state budgets.
AustraliaAustralian mining communities, especially in Western Australia, face headwinds from reduced export earnings, which will ripple through state government budgets, jobs, and investment.
✓ Claims checked against the source and corrected before publish. checked 59 min ago
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