El Niño set to drive 451,000 extra heat deaths globally by Feb
A University of Chicago study projects as many as 451,000 heat deaths from El Niño between June 2026 and February 2027.
The Climate Impact Lab released a report showing El Niño and record global heat could cause nearly half a million excess deaths over eight months. The heaviest toll will hit poorer countries already struggling with food insecurity and high energy costs.
The Sahel region of Africa faces the hardest impact, with about 66,800 projected deaths. South and Southeast Asia will see about 19,400 deaths across the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia.
Indonesia faces 19,300 deaths, India 15,800, and Brazil 13,300. Heat is most dangerous in places already hot and relatively poor, researchers found.
Wealthier nations have better access to air conditioning, water and health systems. The study recommends heat warnings, cooling centres, protection for outdoor workers and targeted support for vulnerable groups.
- 451,000
- Projected extra deaths
- June 2026 to February 2027
- Time period
- 66,800
- Sahel region deaths
- Africa (Sahel)
- Hardest-hit continent
Why it mattersThe world's poorest regions will bear the heaviest cost of this climate event, while wealthier countries have better defences against deadly heat.
AustraliaAustralia is better positioned than most nations to protect people from extreme heat, but the study signals global climate risks will grow.
Corroborated bythenightly.com.au
✓ Claims checked against the source. checked 1 d ago
